\u0130mkans\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hipotezine g\u00f6re, bir ekonomide ayn\u0131 anda hem sermaye hareketlerinin serbest olmas\u0131 hem ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir para politikas\u0131 izlenmesi hem de d\u00f6viz kurunda istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 imkans\u0131z. Fakat 2008-2009 k\u00fcresel krizi sonras\u0131nda geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin d\u00fcnyay\u0131 paraya bo\u011fmas\u0131, sermaye hareketlerinin serbest oldu\u011fu bir ortamda geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeleri hem ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z para politikas\u0131 izlemeye hem de d\u00f6viz kurunda istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamaya zorluyor. Bu \u201cimkans\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u201dy\u00fc alt etme \u00e7abas\u0131nda bizim Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc bir rol\u00fc var. Fakat Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politikalar\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerinin oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlerken, \u015fu anda oldu\u011fu gibi dalga terse d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mekte zorlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu y\u00f6ndeki \u00e7aban\u0131n faturas\u0131 ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130mkans\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc (The impossible trinity) , Ekonomi literat\u00fcr\u00fcndeki para politikas\u0131yla ilgili temel konulardan biri. 1999 y\u0131l\u0131nda Nobel ekonomi \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00fc alan \u00fcnl\u00fc Kanadal\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131 Robert A. Mundell\u2019in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na dayanan bu hipotez, k\u0131saca bir ekonomide ayn\u0131 anda hem sermaye hareketlerinin serbest olmas\u0131n\u0131n hem ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir para politikas\u0131n\u0131n izlenmesinin hem de d\u00f6viz kurunda istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131n imkans\u0131z oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu hipoteze g\u00f6re, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir para politikas\u0131 izlenirken d\u00f6viz kurunda da istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131, ancak sermaye hareketlerinin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131yla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Sermaye hareketleri serbestken ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z para politikas\u0131n\u0131n izlenebilmesi i\u00e7in kur istikrar\u0131ndan feragat etmek ve tam dalgal\u0131 kur rejimine ge\u00e7mek gerekiyor. Sermaye hareketleri serbestken d\u00f6viz kurunda istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ise ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z para politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mekle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1980\u2019lerden itibaren ekonomilerin d\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131lma ba\u015flamas\u0131yla g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde sermaye hareketlerinin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki engeller, k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde neredeyse tamamen ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in esas\u0131nda art\u0131k \u201cimkans\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u201d yerine \u201cimkans\u0131z ikili\u201dden de bahsedilebilir. Sermaye hareketlerinin serbest oldu\u011fu bir d\u00fcnyada, hem ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z para politikas\u0131 izlemek hem de kurlarda istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Bunlardan birinden feragat etmek \u015fart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki 1994 ve 2001 krizleri, imkans\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hipotezini savunanlar\u0131n ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6rnek vakalar aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sermaye hareketlerinin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki engeller, 1989 y\u0131l\u0131nda kald\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, fakat bu yap\u0131l\u0131rken kurlar serbest dalgalanmaya b\u0131rak\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde \u201cy\u00f6netimli dalgalanma\u201d ad\u0131 verilen rejim uygulan\u0131yor, kurlar g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak ayarlan\u0131yordu. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin 1993 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in Hazine
ihalelerini pe\u015f pe\u015fe iptal etmesi, piyasadaki para arz\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131nca 1994\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131nda d\u00f6vize h\u00fccum ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve sonu\u00e7ta b\u00fcy\u00fck bir deval\u00fcasyon ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2001 krizi \u00f6ncesinde enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek amac\u0131yla uygulanan kur rejimi de enflasyonun hedeflendi\u011fi kadar d\u00fc\u015fmemesi ve negatif reel faizlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u00f6km\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu kriz sonras\u0131nda nihayet \u201cimkans\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u201dn\u00fcn hikmeti anla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z para politikas\u0131 tercihi yap\u0131l\u0131rken kurlar dalgalanmaya b\u0131rak\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n