{"id":1859,"date":"2021-11-12T11:35:27","date_gmt":"2021-11-12T08:35:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/?p=1859"},"modified":"2021-11-12T11:35:29","modified_gmt":"2021-11-12T08:35:29","slug":"dolar-neden-deger-kazandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/2021\/11\/12\/dolar-neden-deger-kazandi\/","title":{"rendered":"DOLAR Neden De\u011fer Kazand\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

18 Mart 2021Genel<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6nce bir durum saptamas\u0131 yapal\u0131m. D\u00fcnyada i\u015fler 3 ay \u00f6nceye g\u00f6re daha olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Beklentilerde bozulma var. Bu bozulma kararlar\u0131 etkiliyor ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla piyasalar\u0131 da bozuyor.
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo beklenti bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor (Kaynak: https:\/\/tr.tradingview.com\/symbols\/TVC-DXY\/<\/a>, https:\/\/tr.investing.com\/rates-bonds\/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield<\/a>, https:\/\/www.investing.com\/rates-bonds\/germany-10-year-bond-yield<\/a>, https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>1<\/strong><\/td>2<\/strong><\/td>3<\/strong><\/td>3 vs 2<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Piyasa G\u00f6stergeleri<\/strong><\/td>2017<\/strong><\/td>2018<\/strong><\/td>23.03.2019<\/strong><\/td>%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
USD Endeksi (DXY)<\/td>91,00<\/td>96,17<\/td>96,55<\/td>0,4<\/td><\/tr>
ABD 10 Y\u0131ll\u0131k Tahvil Getirisi<\/td>2,41<\/td>2,69<\/td>2,44<\/td>-9,3<\/td><\/tr>
Almanya 10 Y\u0131ll\u0131k Tahvil Getirisi<\/td>0,42<\/td>0,20<\/td>-0,02<\/td>-110,0<\/td><\/tr>
Brent Petrol USD\/Varil<\/td>66,87<\/td>53,80<\/td>67,03<\/td>24,6<\/td><\/tr>
Alt\u0131n USD\/Ons<\/td>1.303<\/td>1.282<\/td>1.314<\/td>2,5<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dolar Endeksi 2019\u2019un ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermemi\u015f, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi 2018\u2019de sergiledi\u011fi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaybetmi\u015f, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015fecek diye tahmin edilen Brent petrol y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mi\u015f, Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvillerinin getirisi ise eksiye d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar piyasalardaki olumsuz beklentileri net bir bi\u00e7imde yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fine g\u00f6re piyasalardaki olumsuz gidi\u015fin bir ba\u015fka g\u00f6stergesi.
\u015eimdi de k\u0131r\u0131lgan be\u015fli tablomuza d\u00f6nelim ve bakal\u0131m bozulan beklentiler bu \u00fclkeleri nas\u0131l etkilemi\u015f? A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo k\u0131r\u0131lgan be\u015fli \u00fclkelerinin para birimlerinin Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki durumunu g\u00f6steriyor (eksi i\u015faret ilgili paran\u0131n Dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Kaynak: https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/currencies<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>1<\/strong><\/td>2<\/strong><\/td>3<\/strong><\/td>4<\/strong><\/td>5<\/strong><\/td>6<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>2017<\/strong><\/td>2018<\/strong><\/td>21.03.2019<\/strong><\/td>23.03.2019<\/strong><\/td>2 vs 1 (5)<\/strong><\/td>4 vs 3 (%)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Brezilya (Real)<\/td>3,3125<\/td>3,8812<\/td>3,7754<\/td>3,9065<\/td>-17,2<\/td>-3,5<\/td><\/tr>
Endonezya (Rupiah)<\/td>13.550<\/td>14.390<\/td>14.140<\/td>14.162,50<\/td>-6,2<\/td>-0,2<\/td><\/tr>
Hindistan (Rupee)<\/td>63,8725<\/td>69,7675<\/td>68,833<\/td>68,9575<\/td>-9,2<\/td>-0,2<\/td><\/tr>
G. Afrika (Rand)<\/td>12,3828<\/td>14,3467<\/td>14,2038<\/td>14,4976<\/td>-15,9<\/td>-2,1<\/td><\/tr>
T\u00fcrkiye (TL)<\/td>3,7872<\/td>5,2894<\/td>5,4531<\/td>5,7651<\/td>-39,7<\/td>-5,7<\/td><\/tr>
TL Hari\u00e7 Ortalama<\/strong><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td>-12,11<\/strong><\/td>-1,47<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

TL, 2018\u2019de bu be\u015flinin paralar\u0131 aras\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fayan para birimi olmu\u015f. Benzer bir geli\u015fme son 3 g\u00fcndeki geli\u015fmelerde de ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, b\u00fct\u00fcn para birimleri Dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kaybederken TL yine ilk s\u0131ray\u0131 alm\u0131\u015f.
Bu son geli\u015fmedeki olumsuz farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n nereden do\u011fdu\u011funa da bakal\u0131m (Kaynak:https:\/\/tr.tradingeconomics.com\/country-list\/inflation-rate<\/a>, http:\/\/www.cbrates.com\/<\/a>, http:\/\/www.worldgovernmentbonds.com\/cds-historical-data\/turkey\/5-years\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

23.03.2019<\/strong><\/td>Enflasyon<\/strong><\/td>MB Faizi<\/strong><\/td>5 Y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS Primi<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Brezilya<\/td>3,89<\/td>6,50<\/td>162<\/td><\/tr>
Endonezya<\/td>2,57<\/td>6,00<\/td>105<\/td><\/tr>
Hindistan<\/td>2,57<\/td>6,25<\/td>89<\/td><\/tr>
G. Afrika<\/td>4,10<\/td>6,75<\/td>194<\/td><\/tr>
T\u00fcrkiye (TL)<\/td>19,67<\/td>24,00<\/td>381<\/td><\/tr>
T\u00fcrkiye  Hari\u00e7 Ortalama<\/strong><\/td>3,28<\/strong><\/td>6,38<\/strong><\/td>138<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi gibi T\u00fcrkiye, k\u0131r\u0131lgan be\u015fliden temel piyasa g\u00f6stergeleri konusunda olumsuz ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Enflasyon oran\u0131, Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi ve CDS primi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye, grubun zay\u0131f halkas\u0131 konumunda bulunuyor.
Bunlara ek olarak son d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi daha da olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme sokan baz\u0131 geli\u015fmeler oldu.
Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n net d\u00f6viz rezervlerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Bunu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde ortaya koyuyor (Kaynak: https:\/\/evds2.tcmb.gov.tr\/index.php?\/evds\/serieMarket<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2019<\/strong><\/td>Net D\u00f6viz Rezervi<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Tarih<\/strong><\/td>(Milyar USD)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
1 \u015eubat<\/td>28,2<\/td><\/tr>
8 \u015eubat<\/td>28,0<\/td><\/tr>
15 \u015eubat<\/td>27,7<\/td><\/tr>
22 \u015eubat<\/td>27,9<\/td><\/tr>
1 Mart<\/td>28,9<\/td><\/tr>
8 Mart<\/td>26,5<\/td><\/tr>
15 Mart<\/td>24,1<\/td><\/tr>
21 Mart<\/td>21,7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6zellikle 13 \u2013 21 Mart aras\u0131ndaki haftada Bota\u015f\u2019\u0131n y\u00fcksek miktarl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f \u00f6demesi Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gerileme ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131nca yabanc\u0131lar endi\u015feye kap\u0131larak d\u00f6viz taleplerini art\u0131rd\u0131lar. Kur y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca \u00f6teden beri yava\u015f yava\u015f Dolara ge\u00e7meye ba\u015flayan T\u00fcrkler bu ge\u00e7i\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6neldiler. B\u00f6ylece TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 daha da h\u0131zland\u0131.
Rusya\u2019dan S 400 savunma sistemleri al\u0131m\u0131 ve Venezuela alt\u0131nlar\u0131 meselesinin ABD ile yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunlar s\u00fcrerken Golan tepelerinin aidiyeti konusunda ABD ile kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ters deme\u00e7ler verilmesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de risklerin y\u00fckselmesini ate\u015fledi. Bunu da riskleri \u00f6l\u00e7mekte kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS priminde son bir haftada ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan 50 baz puan dolay\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015ftan g\u00f6rebiliyoruz.
Son olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin imk\u00e2ns\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7leme hipotezini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ederek hem faizi hem kuru denetlemeye y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 da bu geli\u015fmeleri tetikledi. \u0130mk\u00e2ns\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7leme hipotezine g\u00f6re; sermaye hareketleri serbestse d\u00f6viz kurunu ve faizleri ayn\u0131 anda denetleyemezsiniz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sermaye hareketleri serbest, yani para istedi\u011fi gibi ekonomiye girip \u00e7\u0131kabiliyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 piyasada serbest\u00e7e belirleniyor ama ger\u00e7ekte kurlar\u0131 bask\u0131lamak i\u00e7in kamu bankalar\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla \u00e7e\u015fitli m\u00fcdahaleler yap\u0131l\u0131yor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re faizler piyasada serbest\u00e7e belirleniyor ama \u00e7e\u015fitli y\u00f6nlendirmelerle bankalar faizlerini s\u00fcrekli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru \u00e7ekiyorlar. Yani g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ne olursa olsun sermaye hareketlerinin serbest oldu\u011fu ekonomide ger\u00e7ekte hem d\u00f6viz kuru hem de faiz oran\u0131 denetim alt\u0131nda tutulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu durumda bir noktadan sonra sigortalar\u0131n atm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na da \u015fa\u015fmamak gerekir.  
Ekonomi tarihine ge\u00e7en ilgin\u00e7 deneylerimiz var: 1994 y\u0131l\u0131nda dalgal\u0131 kur rejimindeyken sabit kur rejiminde ge\u00e7erli olan bir i\u015fleme ba\u015fvurarak deval\u00fcasyon yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k, bu d\u00f6nemde de imk\u00e2ns\u0131z \u00fc\u00e7leme hipotezinin do\u011fru olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test etmi\u015f olduk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

18 Mart 2021Genel \u00d6nce bir durum saptamas\u0131 yapal\u0131m. D\u00fcnyada i\u015fler 3 ay \u00f6nceye g\u00f6re daha olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Beklentilerde bozulma var. Bu bozulma kararlar\u0131 etkiliyor ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla piyasalar\u0131 da bozuyor.A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo beklenti bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor (Kaynak: https:\/\/tr.tradingview.com\/symbols\/TVC-DXY\/, https:\/\/tr.investing.com\/rates-bonds\/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield, https:\/\/www.investing.com\/rates-bonds\/germany-10-year-bond-yield, https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/) 1 2 3 3 vs 2 Piyasa G\u00f6stergeleri 2017 2018 23.03.2019 % USD Endeksi (DXY) 91,00 96,17 96,55 0,4 ABD 10 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1860,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finans"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1859"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1859\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1861,"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1859\/revisions\/1861"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1860"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ahmetcemaliadir.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}